South Africa’s Tough Choices in a Crucial Year Ahead

As South Africa approaches its most unpredictable national election since the dawn of democracy in 1994, the governing ANC is staring down multiple concurrent crises.

These include, severe electricity blackouts, stagnating economic growth, ailing infrastructure, limited state expenditure and rising public debt. With an electoral majority no longer assured, the ANC will be under pressure to shift economic policy and ideology while attempting to safeguard and manage those increasingly frustrated by persistent unemployment and lack of opportunity.

With expenditure outstripping revenue, the ability to kickstart growth through capital expansion is increasingly limited.  The next 12 months is clearly a potential tipping or turning point for the country and requires both balanced and insightful analysis.

An essential conference or event keynote now open for booking.

A flagship deep-dive into both the political and economic fortunes of South Africa with prospects and insights in a crucial election year.

• The State of the World: Risks, Challenges & Opportunities

• The Global Economy: Strength or Stagnation?

• The Ten Most Important Issues in the World right now!

• Emerging Markets 2020: Risks, Rewards & Challenges into the Future.

• The State of Africa 2019: Star-Nations or Stagnation?

• After the Vote: South Africa’s Elections & their Implication for the Future

• Beyond our Borders: South Africa in a Global Context

• Saving Retail: Global Shifts & Retail Repercussions
   

International & Domestic Challenges facing the Nation

Since the pandemic, South Africa’s economic recovery has underperformed its peers as a power crisis and policy stagnation stymies growth.

However, South Africa is not an island unto herself. There are numerous global factors that are influencing our financial well-being. Rapidly rising US interest rates and the USD$ alongside stubborn inflation poses a risk across the world.

Rising debt levels will constrain many developing economies while geo-political fragmentation and shifting global power place pressures on foreign policy goals – of which the Russia/Ukraine invasion plays its part. Commodity prices have been strong but softer Chinese growth can offset this.

The critical question is whether South Africa’s political leadership can make courageous moves to revive the economy amidst both international volatility and rising internal political conflict as Election 2024 looms large.

An always-fresh global macro economic and political overview providing the international context for South African economic challenges.

Can South Africa find its ‘On-Switch’?

South Africa confronts numerous concurrent crises, With global growth still subdued alongside persistent inflation and high interest rates, it’s the electricity crisis that really depresses domestic GDP figures which remain disappointingly low.

Silke fearlessly acknowledges the challenging road ahead for the country, grappling with policy indecision, policing inadequacies implementation inefficiencies and the urgent need to reforming struggling state-owned enterprises.

This keynote therefore provides an overview of the latest economic data and projections for the near future as both Government and the business sector seek new ways to stabilise ailing services prior to a crucial national election looming in 2024.

Silke’s keynote offers essential insights into the promise and pitfalls that lie ahead as the country moves towards the polls.

A comprehensive analysis of the current economic and political state of South Africa offering an expert prognosis on the prospects for stability and progress.

South Africa’s 2024 Elections & the Battle for the Future of the Country.

In 2024, South Africa faces an historic national election which can direct the fate of the nation for years to come. For the first time since the dawn of democracy in 1994, the governing ANC is struggling to poll above 50% of the vote and is therefore not guaranteed of winning an overall majority.

This presents a possible unprecedented scenario at national level of a coalition government and a critical choice between centrists, pragmatists and populists from within both the ANC and Opposition parties.

The options and composition of coalition partners can be complex and may influence the direction of the country both in terms of key aspects of economic policy , the adherence to constitutionalism and stable governance.

Even without a coalition, a weaker ANC majority will have its own performance dynamics.

With heightened political risk amidst stormy economic headwinds and an on-going energy crisis, South Africa enters its most hazardous yet hopeful period in recent times. A forecast for the future that is not to be missed!

Insightful political predictions for the coming national elections with likely outcomes and implications for business.

Political, Economic, Social & Technological Themes to Shape the Next Decade.

Profound political, economic, social and technological change have all been transformational features of the world for decades. Today, these big themes are clearly evident affecting business strategy, investments and the future of humanity at an increasingly rapid pace.

The world is moving towards political fragmentation as new groupings of countries exert their economic clout. Demographics are transforming Africa to be the world’s youngest continent while ageing populations in the West and China require enhanced state assistance.

Technology and AI are causing new ethical and security dilemmas alongside immense potential while climate change challenges weigh on sustainability outcomes and migration challenges.

With the developing world urbanising at record rates, health resources remain critical to human well-being while new battlegrounds over rare-earth minerals emerge. Don’t miss this all new 2023 revisit of the expected MegaTrends for the near future – as compelling and entertaining as ever! 

​Entertaining and Insightful macro-trend & theme analysis ideal for any event requiring a ‘helicopter’ or ‘futurist’  overview and suitable for all audiences.

Recognising & Responding to Rising Political and Economic Risk.

The world is today grappling with a multitude of geopolitical risks that have far-reaching consequences for business.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine alongside tensions between the USA and China only serve to amplify the prevailing atmosphere of uncertainty and fragmentation, as geopolitical power struggles draw in all nations.

The ripple effects of this rivalry are increasingly seeping into the realm of business, finance and trade, further complicating matters as globalisation gives way to regionalisation and friend-shoring. Geo-political influence, economic warfare, sanctions, critical supply chain constraints and protectionism are all already having an impact.

Factors such as inflation, interest rates, debt, currency and foreign relations have become increasingly vulnerable to these uncertainties. In addition, the impact of climate change, demographic shifts, rapid urbanisation and new technologies create challenges and opportunities.

It is therefore essential to identify the core risk factors as part of comprehensive planning strategies for the future.

An invaluable platform to identify explore Global Risk and the strategic choices necessary for a variety of businesses to survive in a challenging environment

The BRICS, Geo-Political Risk & Economic Competition 

The world is shifting – both economically and politically. Recent global tensions involving the relationship between the West and both Russia & China have contributed to heightened geopolitical risk.

Demographic changes favouring Africa alongside impressive economic growth in India and other selected emerging markets present new business opportunities and investor challenges while a more sluggish China looks to reset its growth path.

The enlargement of the BRICS group of nations potentially heralds both a political and economic power shift in the world as the ‘Global South’ look to cement their cooperation and political clout.

For the West, an era of Dollar dominance is now under threat while historic trade corridors shift to new markets. This new international political-economy keynote reflects on all these dramatic shifts and offers essential insights into navigating new and uncharted waters.

In an era where certainty is scarce and complexity abounds, these essential insights serve as a guide for business seeking to adapt and prosper within this evolving paradigm.

Explore the shifting geopolitical and economic landscape providing valuable insights into risk-related issues relevant to business.

Designed to focus specifically on the prevailing trends in the Consumer and Retail sector, this keynote is part of Daniel Silke’s new “Global Impact” series that aims to provide a meaningful and relevant macroeconomic overview of current global conditions and assess the impact on the relevant sector. 

​Consumers are under pressure. Rising inflation has dampened spending patterns forcing retail to react and reassess.

With interest rates still high and utility charges on the rise, shoppers are tightening their belts – with the exception of a healthy luxury sector. But, consumer demand is shifting – and its markets like India and Vietnam likely to set a new agenda as China struggles to gain traction.

​A more ‘bespoke’ keynote offering which combines current economic data with industry specific issues and provides an ideal macro backdrop for further conference discussion and analysis.

May be customised within the South African or global context.