In this keynote, delivered shortly after South Africa’s national elections, a leading political analyst explores the urgent task of coalition-building. With the ANC at 40%, the country has entered unprecedented political territory, with just 14 days to form a national government.

The speaker outlines the complex landscape: opposition parties remain ideologically diverse, making it nearly impossible to unite around a single governing coalition. He draws parallels to Israel’s 2021 experiment, where unlikely partners managed to hold a fragile coalition together, and suggests that South Africa may require similarly unconventional arrangements.

Two starkly different pathways emerge:

• Doomsday Scenarios – An ANC coalition with the EFF, MK, and smaller parties, which could lead to policies such as land expropriation without compensation, nationalization of mines, expanded state companies, and weakened institutions. This outcome, the speaker warns, risks capital flight, skills loss, economic stagnation, and reduced international aid—threatening up to 1.2 million jobs in the NGO and development sector.
• Government of National Unity (GNU) – A more constructive option, where opposition parties and the ANC share responsibility through cluster-based governance rather than ministerial horse-trading. For example, the opposition could control the finance, infrastructure, or justice clusters, enabling reform in critical areas such as policing, logistics, and state-owned enterprises.

The speaker stresses that traditional coalitions often erode smaller parties’ identities, as seen with the IFP in the 1990s and Patricia de Lille’s Good party more recently. Instead, a GNU with clear reform mandates could restore economic growth, strengthen rule of law, and rebuild public trust.

Finally, he highlights the role of business and civil society as vital delivery partners, cautioning against ideologically driven exclusion. South Africa still has globally competitive businesses and strong NGOs—assets that, if mobilized under a GNU, could accelerate recovery.

The message is clear: South Africa stands at a crossroads. A doomsday coalition risks deepening crisis, while a GNU could unlock growth, stability, and confidence.

In this wide-ranging discussion, Professor William Gumede—chair of the Multi-Party Charter negotiations—analyzes South Africa’s new political era under the GNU, just past its symbolic 100-day milestone.

He explains the historical roots of the “100 days” measure, tracing it back to Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal, and applies it to South Africa’s coalition experiment. According to Gumede, the GNU represents the best possible outcome from the 2024 elections: it prevented an ANC single-party dominance scenario (which risked disaster) and blocked a potential populist coalition with the EFF and MK, which could have triggered economic collapse, skills flight, and international isolation.

Key insights:

• Hope returns: Gumede emphasizes that renewed optimism is essential for growth, investment, and stability. Already, more foreign capital has flowed into South Africa in the past two months than in all of 2023, and companies that had considered leaving are recommitting.
• Internal competition matters: For the first time, Cabinet members from diverse parties must compete on performance, and South Africans are noticing which ministers are effective. This new accountability dynamic is reshaping governance.
• Consensus decision-making: Borrowed from the Multi-Party Charter, consensus prevents the ruling party from imposing narrow ideological or factional agendas. Instead, policies must be constitutional, pragmatic, and in the broad national interest. Gumede cites global examples—postwar Germany, Japan, Brazil—where consensus-driven coalitions delivered stability and growth.
• Risks to the GNU:

1. The ANC’s failure to transition from majority-style governance to genuine consensus.
   Internal battles within the ANC between pro- and anti-GNU factions, which could erupt ahead of the 2027 ANC elective conference.
2. Long-term impact: Gumede argues that the GNU could reshape South African politics permanently, perhaps leading to a formal centrist governing coalition—similar to Germany or Scandinavia—and even splitting the ANC between pro-GNU reformists and populist factions.

He also addresses provincial flashpoints like Gauteng, where Premier Panyaza Lesufi positions himself against the GNU, potentially as a steppingstone to ANC leadership. Gumede suggests this strategy may backfire, especially if provincial governance collapses under fiscal strain or corruption scandals.

Looking ahead, he identifies the GNU’s success criteria:

• Tackling corruption (even a 10–15% reduction could boost growth by 3%).
• Strengthening key departments tied to growth (infrastructure, policing, justice).
• Pragmatic partnerships with business and civil society where the state is failing.
• Innovative programs to address youth unemployment, such as civic or military conscription tied to skills and constitutional education.

Finally, Gumede underscores the constitutional battle at the heart of South African politics: pro-democracy forces versus those seeking to dismantle the constitutional order. The GNU, he argues, must defend constitutionalism as non-negotiable for stability, growth, and inclusivity.