In this four minute political update, Prof Richard Calland provides an incisive analysis of a pivotal moment in South Africa’s democratic history. He begins by framing the recent release of the Public Protector’s state capture report as a turning point—a line in the sand that reveals the depth of institutional compromise under President Jacob Zuma. The report exposes how Zuma’s political machinery, in collaboration with the Gupta family and other connected business interests, infiltrated state owned enterprises and manipulated key state institutions such as the National Prosecuting Authority and the investigative arms of the police.

Calland explains Zuma’s attempts to prevent the report’s release, including legal manoeuvres and last minute pressure tactics, before ultimately being forced to allow publication. He highlights the groundswell of public response, noting the formation of a broad civil society coalition that includes business, labour, activists, and faith based organisations united under a single call: Zuma must go. The mobilisation is historically significant, with multiple political parties speaking under one banner—an unprecedented moment since the 1980s.

The analysis shifts to Zuma’s ongoing conflict with Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan. Calland recounts how the National Prosecuting Authority dramatically announced charges against Gordhan, only to withdraw them shortly afterward, further damaging institutional credibility. He warns that despite the withdrawal, Gordhan still faces the threat of new charges as part of the greater political power struggle.

Calland discusses the Democratic Alliance’s motion of no confidence scheduled for the following day, suggesting that while the timing may not be ideal, it does reflect growing internal and external pressure on Zuma. He emphasises that key shifts inside the ANC—including public calls from senior veterans and major unions for Zuma’s resignation—signal mounting momentum ahead of the upcoming ANC National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting.